THIN ICE: 56 min broadcast edition

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In recent years climate science has come under increasing attack, so concerned geologist Simon Lamb grabbed his camera and set out to explore the inside story of climate research. For over three years he followed scientists from a wide range of disciplines at work in the Arctic, Antarctic, Southern Ocean, New Zealand, Europe and the United States.

360x270_community-screening-packageThey talk about their work, their hopes and fears with a rare candor and directness, resulting in an intimate portrait of the global community of researchers racing to understand our planet’s changing climate and provide a compelling case for rising CO2 as the main cause.

CLOSED CAPTIONED: English

DVD:  NTSC      56 mins

Description

Thin-Ice-56-min-front-cover-smThis is the 56 minute broadcast edition of THIN ICE THE INSIDE STORY OF CLIMATE SCIENCE, as seen on public television in the USA. (CLICK HERE FOR THE 74 MIN ORIGINAL VERSION).

CLICK-FOR-AIR-DATES

In recent years climate science has come under increasing attack, so concerned geologist Simon Lamb grabbed his camera and set out to explore the inside story of climate research. For over three years he followed scientists from a wide range of disciplines at work in the Arctic, Antarctic, Southern Ocean, New Zealand, Europe and the United States.

They talk about their work, their hopes and fears with a rare candor and directness, resulting in an intimate portrait of the global community of researchers racing to understand our planet’s changing climate and provide a compelling case for rising CO2 as the main cause.

The film puts a human face on the huge international effort and astonishing range of human activity and scientific endeavor required to understand Earth’s climate system.

CREDITSget-directors-cut

A David Sington and Simon Lamb film
Photographed by Simon Lamb
Executive Producers Peter Barrett and Philip England
Co-produced by Catherine Fitzgerald
Edited by David Fairhead
Music by Philip Sheppard

2015

56 minutes

APT-logo-FullColor_sm

DISTRIBUTED FOR BROADCAST IN THE USA BY
AMERICAN PUBLIC TELEVISION

 


read_synopsis

Thin Ice is a joint initiative between the University of Oxford, Victoria University of Wellington and DOX Productions, London. Both Universities have active programmes with world-wide networks of collaborators in climate change and related research.
 

Additional information

Weight 0.32 lbs
Dimensions 9.5 x 6.5 x .5 in
Pricing Options

Reviews

  1. TRANSCRIPT
    ====================

    0:00
    [ BIRDS CHIRPING ]
    0:04
    >> OKAY.
    0:07
    SO, THIS IS TO TEST THE MICROPHONE.
    0:10
    MY NAME IS SIMON LAMB.
    0:13
    I’M A SCIENTIST.
    0:15
    IN FACT, I’M A GEOLOGIST.
    0:18
    [ MID-TEMPO MUSIC PLAYS ] I’M ALSO A KEEN AMATEUR
    0:26
    CAMERAMAN.
    0:27
    SO, THIS IS THE CREW.
    0:29
    [ LAUGHTER ] ONE CAMERAMAN, ONE CHAP ROPED
    0:32
    INTO DOING THE SOUND, WHO HAPPENED TO BE WALKING PAST
    0:36
    THE DOOR.
    0:37
    AND, UM, LOOKING LIKE A COMPLETE IDIOT.”
    0:47
    LATELY, I’VE NOTICED SOMETHING ODD HAPPENING IN THE WORLD OF
    0:50
    SCIENCE.
    0:51
    FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MY LIFETIME, SCIENTISTS ARE UNDER
    0:55
    ATTACK.
    0:55
    >> IT’S JUNK SCIENCE, AND IT IS A PART OF A MASSIVE
    0:59
    INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC FRAUD.
    1:01
    >> THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC BASIS WHATSOEVER.
    1:04
    >> THIS IS A FRAUD AND A SCAM AND A HOAX.
    1:07
    >> THIS RIDICULOUS NONSENSE THAT MAN-MADE CO2 IS CAUSING GLOBAL
    1:11
    WARMING.
    1:12
    >> THESE EXTREMISTS AND THESE ALARMISTS ARE ALWAYS FINDING
    1:16
    SOMETHING WRONG.
    1:18
    >> THESE EXTREMISTS AND ALARMISTS ARE, OF COURSE,
    1:22
    SCIENTISTS STUDYING THE CLIMATE.
    1:28
    COULD THESE ACCUSATIONS BE TRUE?
    1:30
    WERE DISHONEST CLIMATE SCIENTISTS BRINGING ALL OF US
    1:33
    INTO DISREPUTE?
    1:35
    AS A SCIENTIST, I HAD TO FIND OUT.
    1:38
    I MUST GET MY GLASSES.
    1:46
    SO I DECIDED TO MAKE A FILM ABOUT THE SCIENTISTS AT THE
    1:50
    CENTER OF ALL THIS CONTROVERSY.
    1:54
    IT TOOK ME TO THE ENDS OF THE EARTH AND UNDERNEATH IT.
    1:58
    SO, MATT, WHERE ARE WE NOW?
    1:59
    >> WE’RE IN A TUNNEL IN THE TAYLOR GLACIER IN THE
    2:02
    DRY VALLEYS HERE IN ANTARCTICA.
    2:09
    >> I’VE LOOKED INTO THE FUTURE AND TRAVELED BACK IN TIME.
    2:14
    I’VE EVEN BEEN SOMEWHERE WHERE TIME SEEMED TO STAND STILL.
    2:17
    >> WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING IN BLUE THOSE ISSUES THAT ARE WITHIN THE
    2:23
    MANDATE OF THE GROUP.
    2:30
    >> WHO ARE THESE CLIMATE SCIENTISTS?
    2:32
    WHAT DO THEY DO?
    2:35
    WHAT DO THEY SAY?
    2:37
    AND DO THEY KNOW WHAT THEY’RE TALKING ABOUT?
    2:40
    ARE THEY SEARCHING FOR THE TRUTH, OR THEY PEDDLING A LIE?
    3:00
    IT SO HAPPENS THAT MY OFFICE IN VICTORIA UNIVERSITY OF
    3:03
    WELLINGTON IS JUST DOWN THE CORRIDOR FROM THEIR
    3:06
    ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE.
    3:08
    THEY TOLD ME, “IF YOU WANT TO MEET CLIMATE SCIENTISTS, GO TO
    3:13
    ANTARCTICA.
    3:18
    THE PLACE IS SWARMING WITH THEM.”
    3:36
    THUS IT WAS THAT I FOUND MYSELF ABOARD A U.S. AIR FORCE
    3:40
    C-17 GLOBEMASTER…
    3:47
    IN A CARGO HOLD FULL OF SCIENTISTS…
    3:50
    WONDERING WHAT I’D LET MYSELF IN FOR.
    4:12
    >> GOING THE VERY FIRST TIME TO THE ICE IS SOMETHING THAT YOU
    4:15
    CAN’T REALLY DESCRIBE.
    4:16
    IT’S A — IT’S A REALLY ONCE-IN-A-LIFETIME EXPERIENCE.
    4:22
    STANDING ON A SEA-ICE RUNWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS HUGE, HUGE
    4:28
    CONTINENT, IT’S A FEELING LIKE LANDING ON THE MOON, I GUESS.
    4:32
    I MEAN, I’VE NEVER BEEN TO THE MOON, OBVIOUSLY, BUT I COULD
    4:34
    IMAGINE THAT MAYBE THE ASTRONAUTS WOULD FEEL A SIMILAR
    4:37
    WAY.
    4:40
    BUT ONCE YOU’RE THERE, YOU JUST SEE THE BEAUTY.
    4:44
    YOU SEE THIS AMAZING CONTINENT WITH ALL ITS HISTORIES, ITS
    4:47
    SECRETS, AND IT’S RIGHT THERE IN FRONT OF YOU.
    4:50
    IT’S TRULY AMAZING.
    4:57
    >> THE NEW ZEALANDERS KINDLY MADE ROOM FOR ME AT SCOTT BASE.
    5:00
    >> WE’RE AT 72 DEGREES SOUTH.
    5:02
    >> THIS IS THE PERMANENT BASE THAT SUPPORTS NEW ZEALAND’S
    5:05
    SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN ANTARCTICA — RESEARCH THAT
    5:09
    COVERS THE WHOLE SPECTRUM OF SCIENCE, FROM PHYSICS TO
    5:13
    BIOLOGY.
    5:20
    THE BASE, OF COURSE, IS NAMED AFTER THE LEADER OF ONE OF THE
    5:23
    VERY FIRST SCIENTIFIC EXPEDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN
    5:26
    CONTINENT.
    5:34
    >> SCOTT’S EXPEDITIONS WERE VERY MUCH SCIENCE EXPEDITIONS, AND
    5:37
    HIS TEAM WAS — MORE THAN HALF OF THE COMPOSITION WAS
    5:40
    SCIENTISTS, AND COVERING A BROAD SPECTRUM OF SCIENCE, FROM
    5:45
    GEOLOGY TO GEOGRAPHY, METEOROLOGY, BIOLOGY.
    5:48
    GOING TO THE POLE, IN MANY WAYS, WAS THE MEANS OF RAISING THE
    5:52
    FUNDS.
    5:52
    IT WAS A SORT OF CARROT TO ATTRACT FUNDS TO CARRY OUT A
    5:56
    SCIENTIFIC EXPEDITION.
    6:05
    WE’RE AT SCOTT’S HUT FROM THE SECOND EXPEDITION OF 1910 TO
    6:10
    ’13.
    6:12
    THEIR RECORDS — EVERYONE COMPARES BACK TO THEM, I GUESS,
    6:15
    TO SEE HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED OVER TIME, SO IT WAS ALL
    6:18
    IMPORTANT STUFF.
    6:21
    I ADMIRE THEIR FORTITUDE AND COURAGE AND THEIR JUST
    6:25
    INCREDIBLE CONDITIONS.
    6:27
    NOW IT’S JUST HARD TO IMAGINE THE DEPRIVATIONS THEY WENT
    6:29
    THROUGH.
    6:34
    >> TODAY THE ONLY PEOPLE ALLOWED TO LIVE AND WORK IN ANTARCTICA
    6:38
    ARE SCIENTISTS AND THEIR SUPPORT STAFF.
    6:47
    I FOUND THAT THE VARIETY AND AMBITION OF ANTARCTIC SCIENCE
    6:50
    QUITE STAGGERING.
    6:51
    AND THE COMMON THREAD LINKING MUCH OF THE RESEARCH WAS,
    6:54
    PERHAPS NOT SURPRISINGLY, ICE.
    7:04
    >> THE ARE ICE PLATELETS.
    7:08
    AND…
    7:08
    [ICE CRUNCHING ] …YOU KNOW, ALMOST — ALMOST
    7:11
    FRESH WATER.
    7:13
    AND SO WE THINK IT PLAYS A ROLE IN THE GROWTH OF THE SEA ICE.
    7:25
    >> HEY, BRENT, YOU READY FOR THE NEXT BLOCK?
    7:27
    >> READY!
    7:29
    [ SAW WHIRRING ] >> WE’RE LOOKING FOR MICROBES
    7:38
    THAT RESIDE IN THE ICE AND THAT MAY RESPIRE THE CARBON IN THE
    7:43
    ICE TO FORM CO2.
    7:53
    >> LAST YEAR’S CORE IS LOOKING AT THE YOUNGER PART OF THE
    7:56
    GEOLOGICAL RECORD.
    7:57
    WE’RE ABLE TO SEE A RECORD OF ADVANCE AND RETREAT OF THE ICE
    8:00
    SHELVES.
    8:02
    AND NOW WE’RE ON SEDIMENTS THAT ARE GETTING UP TOWARDS
    8:04
    20 MILLION YEARS — 15 MILLION TO 20 MILLION YEARS — SO IT’S A
    8:07
    MUCH OLDER PART OF THE CLIMATE STORY.
    8:13
    >> THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF A PLACE WHERE
    8:18
    THE ICE HAS DISAPPEARED AND SO HAVE ADéLIE PENGUIN POPULATIONS.
    8:22
    THEY REALLY NEED THE SEA ICE TO DO WELL.
    8:28
    >> ICE, IT TURNS OUT, IS NOT JUST FROZEN WATER.
    8:33
    IT’S FROZEN HISTORY — CLIMATE HISTORY.
    8:44
    I KNEW THAT CLIMATE IS JUST AVERAGE WEATHER.
    8:47
    AND I NOTICED THAT THE IMPORTANT DAILY RITUAL AT SCOTT BASE WAS
    8:51
    THE RECORDING OF THE TEMPERATURE.
    8:55
    >> CURRENT TEMPERATURE AT THE MOMENT IS MINUS-7.6.
    9:03
    THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS
    9:06
    MINUS-6.6.
    9:09
    IT’S ABOUT 50 YEARS.
    9:11
    IT WAS 1957 THAT OBSERVATIONS STARTED BEING TAKEN HERE.
    9:16
    THEY WERE TAKEN EVERY FOUR HOURS.
    9:17
    I’M LUCKY I ONLY HAVE TO DO THEM EVERY DAY AT 9:00.
    9:20
    BUT I’M CONSCIOUS THAT I DON’T WANT TO BE THE FIRST SCIENCE
    9:23
    TECHNICIAN IN 50 YEARS TO BE HUNG OVER FROM THE PARTY LAST
    9:26
    NIGHT AND MISS THE OBSERVATIONS.
    9:28
    AND RESET THIS.
    9:29
    I’D BETTER HOLD ON TO THIS PROPERLY.
    9:31
    I DON’T WANT TO LET GO OF IT AND PUT MERCURY EVERYWHERE.
    9:35
    IT’S EASY TO DO THAT IN WINTER, WHEN YOU’RE WEARING BIG GLOVES.
    9:40
    THERE’S A ONE-DEGREE CHANGE IN THE MEAN TEMPERATURE HERE AT
    9:44
    SCOTT BASE OVER THE LAST 50 YEARS.
    9:47
    AND THAT’S REASONABLY SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF CHANGE
    9:51
    OVER A SHORT PERIOD.
    9:53
    IN PREVIOUS PARTS OF HISTORY, THERE’S BEEN PERHAPS A 4-DEGREE
    9:57
    CHANGE EVERY 1,000 YEARS.
    9:59
    SO ONE DEGREE OVER 50 YEARS IS QUITE SIGNIFICANT.
    10:03
    >> SO, PEOPLE HAVE BEEN RECORDING THE WEATHER IN
    10:05
    ANTARCTICA FOR ABOUT 50 YEARS — 100 IF YOU INCLUDE THE
    10:09
    OBSERVATIONS MADE BY CAPTAIN SCOTT’S EXPEDITION.
    10:18
    BUT ON THE EVANS PIEDMONT GLACIER, I LEARNT THAT SNOW AND
    10:23
    ICE HAVE BEEN RECORDING THE CLIMATE FOR MUCH LONGER.
    10:26
    >> WELL, GIRLS, TAKE YOUR WEAPONS.
    10:29
    [ LAUGHTER ] BECAUSE SNOW IS AN AMAZING
    10:34
    MATERIAL, AS IT FORMS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND FALLS DOWN TO
    10:37
    ACCUMULATE HERE, IT CAPTURES A LOT OF INFORMATION ON THE
    10:40
    PARTICULAR WEATHER OF THE DAY, OF THE MONTH, OF THE YEAR.
    10:46
    AND AS YOU CAN SEE, YOU SEE THESE WONDERFUL STRUCTURES HERE
    10:49
    IN THE SNOW, WHICH REPRESENT ANNUAL LAYERS.
    10:51
    AND SO, BY DIGGING A SNOW PIT, WE’RE GOING BACK ABOUT 40-ODD
    10:55
    YEARS IN TIME.
    10:59
    >> WHEN I VISITED, NANCY BERTLER’S COLLEAGUES WERE
    11:02
    CAREFULLY HARVESTING SNOW THAT HAD FALLEN OVER THE PAST FEW
    11:05
    DECADES — A PERIOD WHEN WE HAVE RECORDS OF HOW THE CLIMATE WAS
    11:10
    CHANGING.
    11:11
    >> AT THE END OF THE DAY, WHAT WE ARE MEASURING IS CHEMISTRY,
    11:15
    ITS ISOTOPES.
    11:16
    AND TO UNDERSTAND HOW THE CLIMATE AND RECORD IS PRESERVED
    11:19
    IN THE SNOW, WE NEED TO HAVE SOME TIME OF OVERLAP WHERE WE
    11:23
    CAN SEE WHAT THE WEATHER DID AND WHAT THE SNOW TELLS US ABOUT THE
    11:26
    WEATHER.
    11:28
    WE USE, THEN, THIS KNOWLEDGE TO GO BACK FURTHER IN TIME WITH THE
    11:31
    ICE-CORE RECORDS, WHERE WE GO BACK MANY THOUSANDS OF YEARS.
    11:35
    BUT WE DON’T HAVE THE LUXURY, OF COURSE, OF HAVING METEOROLOGICAL
    11:38
    OBSERVATIONS.
    11:46
    >> I WAS INTRIGUED BY THESE ICE CORES THAT NANCY HAD
    11:49
    MENTIONED.
    11:50
    AND THEN I WAS TOLD THAT THERE WAS AN AMERICAN-LED TEAM OF
    11:54
    SCIENTISTS DRILLING ICE CORES UP ON THE VAST ANTARCTIC POLAR
    11:58
    ICE CAP.
    12:01
    SO I HITCHED A RIDE ON A LOGISTICS FLIGHT, WHICH TOOK A
    12:05
    MERE 2 1/2 HOURS TO COVER THE SAME GROUND CAPTAIN SCOTT
    12:09
    STRUGGLED OVER FOR 2 1/2 MONTHS.
    12:25
    APPARENTLY, THIS SMALL TEAM WAS TRAVELING RIGHT ACROSS THE
    12:28
    POLAR PLATEAU, DRILLING ICE CORES AS THEY WENT.
    12:46
    >> WE STARTED ABOUT 450 KILOMETERS NORTH OF HERE LAST
    12:50
    YEAR.
    12:51
    ONLY MANAGED TO TRAVEL THE 450 KILOMETERS.
    12:54
    TYPICALLY, WE TRAVEL MUCH MORE THAN 1,000 IN A SEASON.
    12:59
    WE EFFECTIVELY TRAVEL IN THREE DIFFERENT GROUPS.
    13:02
    THE FIRST IS THAT RED PistenBully HAS A CREVASSE
    13:04
    DETECTOR ON THE FRONT.
    13:08
    THEN THE SECOND TRAIN WILL HAVE THE KITCHEN AND THE
    13:12
    ACCOMMODATIONS.
    13:14
    IT’S DRAGGING EXPERIMENTS, LOOKING DOWN INTO THE ICE.
    13:17
    AND THEN THE THIRD TRAIN IS MADE UP OF ICE CORES AND ADDITIONAL
    13:21
    SCIENTIFIC EQUIPMENT.
    13:24
    >> I’M DANIEL DIXON.
    13:26
    I’M A PhD STUDENT WITH PAUL MAYEWSKI.
    13:31
    WE’RE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND THE CLIMATE OF ANTARCTICA FOR THE
    13:35
    LAST 200 TO 1,000 YEARS.
    13:37
    AND I DO THIS BY LOOKING AT THE CHEMISTRY OF ICE CORES.
    13:44
    >> THESE ARE OUR TWO ICE-CORE DRILLS.
    13:46
    ONE RECOVERS ABOUT A 3-INCH-DIAMETER ICE CORE.
    13:49
    THE OTHER, ABOUT A 2-INCH DIAMETER ICE CORE.
    13:52
    AND THEY CAN GO DOWN ABOUT 100 TO 200 METERS, ALLOWING US TO GO
    13:56
    BACK 200 TO ABOUT 1,000 YEARS.
    13:58
    >> THE WAY THIS DRILL WORKS IS SIMILAR TO THE WAY YOU WOULD
    14:02
    DRILL A HOLE IN THE WALL OF YOUR HOUSE.
    14:04
    BUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS, OUR DRILL BIT IS HOLLOW.
    14:07
    AND SO, WHILE WE’RE DRILLING, THE CORE IS ACTUALLY CAPTURED
    14:10
    INSIDE THE DRILL BIT.
    14:12
    PAUL WILL PUSH THE CORE FROM THIS END, AND THE CHIPS WILL
    14:14
    EMPTY.
    14:18
    AND HERE COMES THE CORE.
    14:20
    AND THERE WE HAVE A PERFECT METER OF CORE.
    14:22
    >> WHAT WE UNDERSTOOD FROM THE LATE 1960s PROBABLY UNTIL ABOUT
    14:26
    15 YEARS AGO — OR BELIEVED, I SHOULD SAY — THAT ANTARCTICA
    14:30
    WAS A VERY STABLE PLACE.
    14:32
    GIANT, WHITE, COLD MASS OF ICE THAT NEVER CHANGED.
    14:36
    IN THE LAST 15 TO 20 YEARS, WE’VE LEARNED THAT THIS PLACE IS
    14:39
    VERY, VERY DYNAMIC.
    14:42
    THIS MAY BE A COLD SPOT, BUT, CLIMATICALLY, IT’S A REAL
    14:45
    POTENTIAL HOT SPOT FOR CHANGE.
    14:55
    >> SO, OVERALL, WE DRILLED 1,000 METERS.
    14:58
    THAT’S ALMOST A DECADE WORTH OF WORK.
    15:02
    SO, THIS IS OUR CORE.
    15:03
    WORKING ON THIS ONE.
    15:08
    IT’S NOT THE EASIEST OF JOBS.
    15:10
    IT’S A LITTLE BIT FIDDLY.
    15:11
    WE SET IT ONTO A CONTINUOUS MELTER, WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH
    15:14
    JUST LIKE A HOT PLATE.
    15:16
    AND IT MELTS THE ICE CORE LAYER BY LAYER, BACK THROUGH TIME.
    15:22
    AND AS THE WATER IS PRODUCED, IT IS PUMPED BY THESE PUMPS INTO
    15:26
    THESE VARIOUS TUBES.
    15:27
    AND THIS ALLOWS US TO DO ANALYSIS OF ALL SORTS OF THINGS
    15:31
    THAT ARE CONTAINED IN THESE ICE CORES.
    15:38
    WE’RE LOOKING FOR PROPERTIES OF THE WATER THAT TELL US ABOUT THE
    15:42
    TEMPERATURE.
    15:42
    WE’RE LOOKING FOR DUST AS AN INDICATOR OF WIND STRENGTH,
    15:46
    WHERE THIS AIR MASS MAY HAVE COME FROM THAT PRECIPITATED THIS
    15:49
    SNOW.
    15:52
    AND SO, BY STUDYING HOW MUCH OF THESE VARIOUS COMPONENTS IS IN
    15:56
    THE ICE, WE GET A FEEL FOR WHAT CLIMATE WAS LIKE AT THE TIME
    16:00
    WHEN THE SNOW FELL.
    16:03
    >> BUT WHAT REALLY FASCINATED ME WAS THAT THE ICE CORES ALLOWS US
    16:07
    TO RELATE CHANGES IN PAST CLIMATE TO CHANGES IN THE
    16:11
    COMPOSITION OF THE ANCIENT ATMOSPHERE.
    16:14
    >> IN THE ICE CORES, THERE’S LITTLE BUBBLES, AND THOSE BUBBLE
    16:17
    CONTAIN A REAL SAMPLE OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH TIME.
    16:20
    WE CAN RELEASE THAT AIR AND MEASURE THE GREENHOUSE GASES.
    16:24
    YOU COULD ALMOST SAY WE’RE TAKING THE DNA OF THE
    16:27
    ATMOSPHERE.
    16:29
    >> NANCY AND HER COLLEAGUES ARE JUST ONE OF MANY SCIENTIFIC
    16:32
    GROUPS EXAMINING ICE CORES.
    16:36
    I FOUND A LOT OF THE ORIGINAL SCIENTIFIC PAPERS ON THE WEB,
    16:39
    GOING BACK OVER 30 YEARS.
    16:43
    ALL THE CORES SEEM TO TELL THE SAME STORY — A REGULAR PATTERN
    16:47
    OF WARMING AND COOLING AS THE PLANET PASSES IN AND OUT OF
    16:52
    ICE AGES.
    16:55
    >> YEAH, SO, WE’VE GOT THIS REMARKABLE RECORD IN THE ICE
    16:59
    CORES, AND WE SEE THESE VERY REGULAR BUT QUITE DRAMATIC
    17:03
    SHIFTS, GOING FROM WARM TO COLD, WARM TO COLD, WARM TO COLD.
    17:06
    AND THESE ARE THE GLACIAL, END-OF-GLACIAL CYCLES HAPPENING
    17:09
    EVERY 100,000 YEARS.
    17:11
    >> BUT WHAT’S REALLY STRIKING IS THE WAY THAT CARBON DIOXIDE
    17:15
    LEVELS SHOW EXACTLY THE SAME PATTERN AS TEMPERATURE.
    17:18
    IT’S PROBABLY THE BEST CORRELATION IN ANY NATURAL
    17:21
    DATA SET THAT I’VE EVER SEEN.
    17:23
    >> THE GREENHOUSE GASES ALSO SHOW THE SAME PATTERN, SO WHEN
    17:28
    THE CARBON DIOXIDE GOES UP, THE TEMPERATURE GOES UP.
    17:30
    VICE VERSA, WHEN THE CARBON DIOXIDE GOES DOWN, THE
    17:33
    TEMPERATURE GOES DOWN.
    17:34
    AND FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES, IT LOOKS LIKE THEY’VE
    17:37
    TOTALLY LOCKED TOGETHER IN STEP.
    17:39
    AND IT REALLY IS A REMARKABLE PIECE OF SCIENCE.
    17:42
    IT’S REVOLUTIONIZED THE WAY WE THINK ABOUT THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
    17:50
    >> THIS DISCOVERY THAT, GOING BACK HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF
    17:54
    YEARS, THERE’S A LINK BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
    17:57
    AND TEMPERATURE, MUST BE ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS TO
    18:01
    COME OUT OF ANTARCTIC SCIENCE.
    18:08
    BUT TO ME, THIS CORRELATION WAS STILL NOT PROOF OF THE CENTRAL
    18:12
    CLAIM OF CLIMATE SCIENTISTS, THAT CHANGING LEVELS OF CO2 ARE
    18:18
    ACTUALLY CAUSING THE CHANGING TEMPERATURES.
    18:25
    I REALIZED I NEEDED TO KNOW A LOT MORE ABOUT WHAT
    18:28
    CARBON DIOXIDE DOES IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WHY IT’S CALLED A
    18:32
    GREENHOUSE GAS.
    18:34
    IT WAS TIME TO TALK TO PHYSICISTS.
    18:41
    >> WE’RE GOING TO TRY AND GO THROUGH, IN THIS TUTORIAL,
    18:44
    BASICALLY WHAT CONTROLS THE CLIMATE OF THE EARTH.
    18:47
    >> BUT I WAS RATHER TAKEN ABACK AT WHAT THEY SAID.
    18:50
    >> THE QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT GREENHOUSE GASES ARE CAUSING
    18:53
    GLOBAL WARMING IS COMPLETELY UNINTERESTING TO A PHYSICIST.
    18:56
    OF COURSE THEY’RE CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING.
    18:59
    >> IT TURNS OUT THAT THE THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING, THE
    19:02
    GREENHOUSE EFFECT, WAS ALL WORKED OUT SOME TIME AGO.
    19:06
    >> IF ALL WE KNEW WAS THAT GREENHOUSE-GAS LEVELS WERE GOING
    19:10
    UP, AND SUPPOSING WE DIDN’T HAVE ANY RECORD OF TEMPERATURES OVER
    19:14
    THE PAST 50 YEARS, WE WOULD STILL EXPECT, AS PHYSICISTS, THE
    19:18
    WORLD TO BE WARMING AS A RESULT.
    19:20
    >> REALLY, WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT IS NOT SO DIFFERENT FROM
    19:23
    THE WARMING EFFECT THAT YOU GET FROM ADDING FIBERGLASS
    19:26
    INSULATION TO YOUR HOUSE.
    19:28
    >> WE’VE GOT A BIG, CHUNKY AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
    19:31
    COMING IN FROM THE SUN.
    19:32
    >> IF WE WANT TO UNDERSTAND THE CLIMATE, OR PARTICULARLY THE
    19:35
    TEMPERATURE — THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE — OF A PLANET, YOU
    19:39
    FIRST HAVE TO UNDERSTAND SOMETHING ABOUT THE CONNECTION
    19:41
    BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND ENERGY.
    19:43
    TEMPERATURE IS, LOOSELY SPEAKING, A MEASURE OF THE
    19:46
    ENERGY CONTENT OF SOMETHING.
    19:47
    SOMETHING THAT IS HOTTER ACTUALLY HAS MORE ENERGY INSIDE
    19:51
    IT.
    19:51
    AND SO, IN ORDER TO DETERMINE THE TEMPERATURE, YOU NEED TO
    19:55
    KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT THE RATE AT WHICH ENERGY GOES IN AND THE
    19:58
    RATE AT WHICH ENERGY GOES OUT.
    20:09
    IN 1827, IT WAS RECOGNIZED THAT THE ENERGY THAT MAINTAINS THE
    20:13
    EARTH’S TEMPERATURE IS NOT ENERGY COMING UP FROM THE
    20:17
    INTERIOR OF THE PLANET, BUT THE SUNLIGHT THAT’S ABSORBED.
    20:21
    AND SO, IF YOU KEPT ABSORBING ALL THE SUNLIGHT AND YOU KEPT
    20:25
    ACCUMULATING ENERGY, THEN THE PLANET WOULD JUST HEAT UP AND
    20:29
    HEAT UP AND HEAT UP.
    20:30
    THE TEMPERATURE WOULD GROW WITHOUT BOUND UNTIL WE MELTED.
    20:39
    SO, THE OTHER PART OF THE EQUATION THAT DETERMINES THE
    20:43
    TEMPERATURE OF A PLANET IS THE RATE AT WHICH YOU LOSE ENERGY.
    20:46
    AND HERE, THE KEY INSIGHT IS THAT THE HOTTER A BODY GETS, THE
    20:50
    MORE RAPIDLY IT LOSES ENERGY.
    20:52
    AND SO YOU’RE RECEIVING ENERGY AT MORE OR LESS A FIXED RATE
    20:54
    FROM THE SUN.
    20:55
    AND THEN THE TEMPERATURE BUILDS UP AND BUILDS UP AND BUILDS UP.
    20:58
    THE HOTTER IT GETS, THE MORE RAPIDLY YOU LOSE ENERGY TO
    21:01
    SPACE.
    21:04
    AND THEN — BANG — WHEN WHAT GOES OUT EQUALS WHAT COMES IN,
    21:08
    THAT’S YOUR EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURE.
    21:14
    >> THOUGH, ON REFLECTION, IT’S OBVIOUS, I WAS STILL STRUCK BY
    21:17
    THE FACT THAT, TO AVOID BURNING UP, THE EARTH MUST CONSTANTLY
    21:21
    LOSE ENERGY TO SPACE.
    21:23
    >> GIVEN THAT OUTER SPACE IS ESSENTIALLY A VACUUM, THE ONLY
    21:27
    WAY THAT A PLANET CAN LOSE ENERGY, THE ONLY THING THAT
    21:30
    EXITS FROM A PLANET IS LIGHT RADIATION, ELECTROMAGNETIC
    21:33
    RADIATION.
    21:34
    AND “LIGHT,” I MEAN, BROADLY CONSTRUED.
    21:36
    SO THERE IS LIGHT THAT WE CAN’T SEE — INFRARED.
    21:44
    >> AND YOU CAN ACTUALLY FEEL THE EFFECT OF INFRARED ENERGY FROM
    21:48
    THE EARTH.
    21:49
    IF YOU GO OUT ON A CLEAR NIGHT IN THE WINTER, AND YOU HOLD YOUR
    21:52
    HAND ABOVE THE GROUND, YOU CAN ACTUALLY FEEL THAT THE BOTTOM
    21:56
    OF YOUR HAND FEELS WARMER THAN THE TOP.
    21:59
    AND THAT’S THE FLUX OF INFRARED ENERGY ESCAPING FROM THE EARTH.
    22:04
    THE REASON I SAID IT HAD TO BE A COLD NIGHT IN WINTER IS BECAUSE
    22:07
    THOSE ARE SOME OF THE FEW CONDITIONS IN WHICH YOU ACTUALLY
    22:10
    DO GET RADIATION ESCAPING FROM THE SURFACE OF THE EARTH
    22:13
    DIRECTLY.
    22:14
    ON MOST DAYS, UNDER MOST CONDITIONS, THE ATMOSPHERE IS
    22:19
    FAR TOO THICK, FAR TOO OPAQUE FOR THIS INFRARED RADIATION TO
    22:25
    ESCAPE DIRECTLY TO SPACE.
    22:26
    AND THIS IS THE THING PEOPLE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND.
    22:29
    THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT IN THE INFRARED.
    22:33
    IF WE WERE WEARING GOGGLES WHICH ONLY ALLOWED US TO SEE IN THE
    22:37
    WAVELENGTHS THAT THE EARTH USES TO SHED ENERGY TO SPACE, WE
    22:40
    WOULDN’T BE ABLE TO SEE VERY FAR.
    22:42
    WE’D BARELY BE ABLE TO SEE 200 YARDS TO THE COLLEGE OVER
    22:46
    THERE.
    22:50
    >> MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS NITROGEN AND OXYGEN.
    22:53
    I MEAN, 80% OF IT IS NITROGEN.
    22:54
    AND NITROGEN DOESN’T REALLY ABSORB INFRARED RADIATION VERY
    22:57
    WELL.
    22:58
    IT DOESN’T ABSORB HEAT VERY WELL AT ALL.
    23:00
    SO ANYTHING LIKE CARBON DIOXIDE, WHICH IS A DIFFERENT TYPE OF
    23:05
    MOLECULE — IT HAS A DIFFERENT SHAPE, ESSENTIALLY — IS MUCH,
    23:09
    MUCH BETTER AT ABSORBING HEAT — SPECIFICALLY, AT THE
    23:12
    WAVELENGTHS, THE PARTS OF THE COLORS OF THE SPECTRUM, WHERE
    23:15
    THE EARTH IS RE-EMITTING THAT HEAT.
    23:20
    OKAY, WHAT I’M GOING TO DO IS I’M GOING TO PUFF SOME
    23:22
    CARBON DIOXIDE FROM THIS FIRE EXTINGUISHER INTO THE BEAM
    23:25
    BETWEEN THE SUN AND THE INSTRUMENT AND SEE WHAT EFFECT
    23:27
    THAT HAS ON THE ABSORPTIONS.
    23:28
    HERE WE GO.
    23:29
    [ GAS WHOOSHES ] LET’S SEE WHAT THAT DOES.
    23:32
    SO, HERE WE’VE GOT THE TWO SPECTRA THAT WE MEASURED FROM
    23:35
    OUTSIDE.
    23:36
    THE BLACK CURVE UNDERNEATH IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER WE PUFF THE
    23:39
    CARBON DIOXIDE FROM THE FIRE EXTINGUISHER IN.
    23:43
    AND HERE, YOU CAN SEE THE STRONG ABSORPTION FEATURE DUE TO CO2.
    23:49
    AND THIS SHOWS WHY CARBON DIOXIDE IS SUCH A GOOD
    23:52
    GREENHOUSE GAS, BECAUSE IT HAS SUCH STRONG ABSORPTION IN THE
    23:56
    INFRARED, WHERE THE EARTH IS RE-EMITTING HEAT FROM THE SUN.
    24:02
    >> BUT THE HIGHER UP YOU GO, THE MORE TENUOUS THE ATMOSPHERE
    24:05
    GETS, THE THINNER IT IS, SO THERE’S LESS GREENHOUSE GAS
    24:07
    THERE, JUST BECAUSE THERE’S LESS GAS OF ANY SORT.
    24:10
    AND SO THERE’S ALWAYS SOME LEVEL WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE FINALLY
    24:13
    BECOMES THIN ENOUGH THAT THE RADIATION CAN ESCAPE TO SPACE.
    24:16
    AND THAT IS CALLED THE RADIATING LEVEL.
    24:19
    [ GAS WHOOSHING ]
    24:27
    >> I’VE BEEN DOING THIS TWICE A DAY FOR THE LAST 40 YEARS.
    24:31
    >> [ Chuckling ] DO YOU ENJOY DOING THIS?
    24:33
    >> IT’S FASCINATING.
    24:35
    YOU NEVER CAN TELL WHAT YOU’RE GOING TO GET ON YOUR FLIGHT, AND
    24:38
    IT’S ALWAYS DIFFERENT.
    24:40
    [ GAS SPUTTERS ] >> AS YOU’RE GOING UP IN A
    24:44
    BALLOON, YOU’RE, IN EFFECT, RISING THROUGH THE MIST AND
    24:48
    ESCAPING SLOWLY FROM THE GREENHOUSE BLANKET THAT
    24:53
    ENVELOPES THE SURFACE OF THE EARTH.
    24:55
    [ PRINTER WHIRRING ] AND WHEN YOU GET TO AROUND 5,000
    24:58
    METERS, YOU’VE REACHED THAT CRITICAL ALTITUDE WHERE ENERGY
    25:02
    CAN BEGIN TO ESCAPE TO SPACE.
    25:04
    [ EQUIPMENT BEEPING ] >> AND THAT LEVEL IS COLDER THAN
    25:08
    THE GROUND, BECAUSE THE HIGHER UP YOU GO, UP TO A CERTAIN
    25:12
    POINT, THE COLDER IT GETS.
    25:13
    AND THAT IS CALLED THE RADIATING TEMPERATURE OF THE PLANET.
    25:17
    >> OKAY, THE TEMPERATURE PLOT WE HAVE HERE STARTS AT THE SURFACE
    25:22
    AT ABOUT 18 DEGREES.
    25:24
    AT ABOUT 10,000 FEET, WE GO THROUGH THE FREEZING LEVEL.
    25:28
    YOU CAN SEE THE TEMPERATURE DECREASE UP TO THIS POINT HERE,
    25:33
    WHICH IS ABOUT 12 KILOMETERS, WHICH IS THE TROPOPAUSE.
    25:42
    AND THEN I’LL BE BACK HERE AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND DO IT ALL
    25:46
    OVER AGAIN.
    25:53
    >> THAT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RADIATING TEMPERATURE, WHICH IS
    25:56
    SOMETHING YOU MEASURE FROM SATELLITES AND CAN CONFIRM —
    25:58
    THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RADIATING TEMPERATURE AND THE
    26:01
    SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ACCOUNTED FOR BY GREENHOUSE GASES.
    26:05
    >> IF YOU LOOK TO THE PLANET FROM SPACE, IT WOULD LOOK AS IF
    26:10
    THE PLANET HAD A TEMPERATURE OF MINUS-18 DEGREES.
    26:14
    THAT’S THE TEMPERATURE, IN FACT, WE WOULD HAVE IF WE HAD NO
    26:18
    ATMOSPHERE.
    26:19
    BUT, IN FACT, OF COURSE, WE HAVE A BLANKET OF GREENHOUSE GASES
    26:24
    SURROUNDING THE EARTH.
    26:27
    WHAT YOU SEE FROM SPACE IS THE TOP OF THAT BLANKET, SO TO
    26:30
    SPEAK, WHICH, JUST LIKE A REAL BLANKET, CAN BE MUCH COLDER THAN
    26:33
    THE BOTTOM.
    26:34
    SO, WHERE WE ARE, UNDERNEATH THIS BLANKET, IS A NICE
    26:38
    COMFORTABLE 15 DEGREES, ON AVERAGE.
    26:41
    >> NO MATTER HOW MUCH GREENHOUSE GAS WE ADD TO THE ATMOSPHERE, WE
    26:45
    WILL NOT, IN THE LONG TERM, CHANGE THE RADIATING TEMPERATURE
    26:49
    OF THE PLANET, BECAUSE THE RADIATING TEMPERATURE IS
    26:52
    DETERMINED BY THE REQUIREMENTS OF ENERGY BALANCE.
    26:55
    SO IF THE EARTH IS RADIATING AT A TEMPERATURE OF MINUS-20
    26:58
    CELSIUS TODAY, IN ROUND NUMBERS, THEN EVEN AFTER ADDING A LOT OF
    27:03
    CARBON DIOXIDE TO THE ATMOSPHERE, IT WILL STILL, ONCE
    27:07
    IT COMES BACK INTO BALANCE, BE RADIATING AT MINUS-20.
    27:12
    WHEN WE ADD CARBON DIOXIDE TO THE ATMOSPHERE, WE ARE NOT
    27:15
    PRIMARILY CHANGING THE RADIATING TEMPERATURE.
    27:17
    WHAT WE’RE CHANGING IS THE RADIATING ALTITUDE.
    27:20
    >> NOW, WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE RAISE GREENHOUSE-GAS LEVELS IS
    27:25
    YOU MAKE THIS FOG THICKER, AND THE MIST RISES SLIGHTLY.
    27:29
    AND WHERE YOU ARE, ENERGY CAN NO LONGER ESCAPE TO SPACE.
    27:32
    YOU HAVE TO GO A LITTLE BIT HIGHER FOR THE ENERGY TO ESCAPE
    27:35
    TO SPACE.
    27:38
    >> THE MORE GREENHOUSE GAS YOU STUFF IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THE
    27:42
    HIGHER YOU HAVE TO GO BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE IS THIN ENOUGH TO LET
    27:45
    THE INFRARED RADIATION ESCAPE TO SPACE.
    27:49
    SO THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS RADIATING TO SPACE FROM A HIGHER
    27:53
    ATTITUDE THAN IT USED TO BE, SO THAT THE TEMPERATURE AT THE
    27:57
    RADIATING LEVEL, WHICH IS STILL, LET’S SAY, MINUS-20, REMAINS AT
    28:02
    MINUS-20, BUT THAT TEMPERATURE IS OCCURRING HIGHER UP.
    28:06
    AND SINCE THE RATE OF TEMPERATURE INCREASE, AS YOU GO
    28:09
    DEEPER IN THE ATMOSPHERE, IS APPROXIMATELY FIXED, YOU’RE
    28:13
    STARTING AT THAT MINUS-20 FROM HIGHER UP.
    28:15
    BY THE TIME YOU EXTRAPOLATE TO THE GROUND, YOU WIND UP WITH A
    28:18
    HIGHER TEMPERATURE.
    28:30
    ON THE AVERAGE, THE TEMPERATURE GOES DOWN ABOUT 6 DEGREES WITH
    28:34
    EACH KILOMETER THAT YOU GO UP.
    28:36
    AND SO WE CAN ASK THE QUESTION, “HOW MUCH HIGHER DO WE HAVE TO
    28:40
    PUSH THAT LEVEL IN ORDER TO GET, SAY, A 2-DEGREE WARMING AT THE
    28:43
    SURFACE?”
    28:44
    WELL, TO GET A 6-DEGREE WARMING, YOU WOULD PUSH THAT RADIATING
    28:48
    LEVEL UP BY ONE KILOMETER.
    28:49
    TO GET A 2-DEGREE WARMING AT THE SURFACE, YOU ONLY NEED TO PUSH
    28:53
    IT UP ABOUT A THIRD THAT MUCH, WHICH IS, IN ROUND NUMBERS,
    28:56
    300 METERS.
    28:58
    IT TAKES RELATIVELY LITTLE INCREASE IN THE INFRARED
    29:01
    MURKINESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO CHANGE THE ALTITUDE AT WHICH
    29:06
    INFRARED ESCAPES TO SPACE, BY A MERE 300 METERS.
    29:12
    AND THAT’S PART OF WHY THE CLIMATE IS SO SENSITIVE TO
    29:15
    GREENHOUSE-GAS CONCENTRATIONS.
    29:24
    >> SO, THE LINK BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND CARBON DIOXIDE
    29:28
    WAS BASIC PHYSICS — IDEAS THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR OVER 100
    29:32
    YEARS.
    29:36
    BUT ARE GLOBAL TEMPERATURES REALLY RISING IN THE WAY THESE
    29:39
    IDEAS WOULD SUGGEST?
    29:47
    WORKING OUT AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE WHOLE PLANET
    29:50
    IS, OBVIOUSLY, NOT A SIMPLE MATTER.
    29:55
    BUT A LITTLE BIT OF RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET SOON REVEALED THAT
    29:58
    THERE ARE, IN FACT, THREE DIFFERENT SCIENTIFIC GROUPS THAT
    30:02
    HAVE UNDERTAKEN THE TASK.
    30:06
    THE GROUPS ARE INDEPENDENT OF EACH OTHER, AND THEIR ESTIMATES
    30:09
    OF GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DIFFER SLIGHTLY.
    30:12
    BUT OVERALL, THEY REACH VERY SIMILAR CONCLUSIONS.
    30:18
    I WENT TO MEET PROFESSOR PHIL JONES, WHO
    30:21
    LEADS THE BRITISH EFFORT, BASED AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
    30:23
    EAST ANGLIA.
    30:26
    PHIL’S OFFICE TOOK ME RATHER BY SURPRISE.
    30:29
    IT WAS CRAMMED WITH SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS, AND THERE WAS
    30:33
    BARELY ROOM TO FILM, BUT PHIL SEEMED QUITE AT HOME HERE.
    30:40
    >> MOST OF THE CLIMATE INFORMATION WE HAVE ACCESS TO —
    30:43
    NOT JUST FOR TEMPERATURE BUT OTHER VARIABLES, TOO — IS
    30:46
    COLLECTED FOR WEATHER-FORECASTING PURPOSES.
    30:48
    SO THE PRIMARY USE IS WEATHER FORECASTS.
    30:50
    AND YOU CAN THINK OF CLIMATE AS A SECOND-HAND USER OF WEATHER
    30:54
    DATA.
    30:55
    >> PHIL HAS ALSO COLLECTED WEATHER DATA LIKE THIS, GOING
    30:58
    BACK IN TIME MORE THAN A CENTURY.
    31:00
    >> THIS IS THE BOOK WITH SCOTT’S EXPEDITION AND OTHERS TO THE
    31:04
    ANTARCTIC, 1909 TO 1911 PERIOD.
    31:08
    SO IT CONTAINS ALL THE TEMPERATURE, PRESSURE, SNOWFALL,
    31:12
    OTHER WEATHER MEASUREMENTS THAT WERE TAKEN, BOTH AT THE BASES
    31:16
    ON THE COAST AND ON HIS ILL-FATED EXPEDITION TO THE
    31:20
    SOUTH POLE.
    31:24
    THIS IS ONE OF THE RUSSIAN YEARBOOKS FOR 1847.
    31:28
    AND THIS ONE CONTAINS DAILY DATA AND MONTHLY DATA FROM VARIOUS
    31:33
    PLACES ACROSS RUSSIA.
    31:35
    AND IT TELLS US THE TEMPERATURE AND THE PRESSURE EVERY HOUR, THE
    31:40
    DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS.
    31:41
    SO, AGAIN, WE’VE GONE THROUGH THESE AND DIGITIZED LOTS OF THE
    31:46
    DATA, AND ALL THIS GOES INTO OUR DATABASE.
    31:51
    THERE ARE ONE OR TWO COOLISH DECADES IN THE SECOND HALF OF
    31:54
    THE 19th CENTURY AND ONE OR TWO SLIGHTLY WARMER DECADES, BUT
    31:57
    THERE’S NO REAL OVERALL TREND IN TEMPERATURE ON
    32:00
    LARGER-THAN-DECADE TIME SCALES UNTIL YOU GET TO THE 1910s.
    32:09
    THEN, YOU HAVE A WARMING OF TEMPERATURES, BUT A DRAMATIC
    32:13
    WARMING FROM THE LATE 1910s TO THE MIDDLE OF THE 1940s, WHICH
    32:18
    IS MORE MARKED IN THE ARCTIC REGION THAN IN OTHER REGIONS OF
    32:23
    THE WORLD.
    32:24
    AND AFTER THAT TIME, THE TEMPERATURES COOLED SLIGHTLY TO
    32:27
    THE LATE 1970s, AND THEY’VE WARMED VERY DRAMATICALLY SINCE.
    32:36
    AND THE TOP 10 WARMEST YEARS ARE ALL FROM ’97 THROUGH TO 2008,
    32:42
    WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1999.
    32:46
    >> THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS SHOW THAT OVER THE PAST FEW DECADES,
    32:49
    THE REGION THAT HAD WARMED FASTEST ON EARTH WAS THE ARCTIC.
    32:59
    I WANTED TO FIND OUT WHAT THE PEOPLE WHO LIVE THERE HAD
    33:02
    EXPERIENCED, SO I JUMPED AT THE CHANCE TO VISIT NORTHERN NORWAY.
    33:07
    >> [ SPEAKING NATIVE LANGUAGE ]
    33:22
    EXACTLY HOW LONG THE SAMI PEOPLE HAVE BEEN HERE SEEMS TO BE A
    33:26
    MATTER OF DEBATE.
    33:30
    >> THE SAMI HAVE BEEN REINDEER HERDERS A VERY, VERY LONG TIME.
    33:34
    SOME SCIENTISTS SAY 400 YEAR.
    33:37
    AND OF COURSE, IT IS SEVERAL THOUSAND OF YEAR, NOT ONLY
    33:41
    400 YEARS.
    33:44
    SO WHOLE CULTURE, THE IDENTITY, AND SO ON IS CONNECTED TO
    33:48
    REINDEER HUSBANDRY.
    33:50
    OF COURSE, IT IS VERY CLOSE, REALLY — VERY CLOSE TO THE
    33:54
    ENVIRONMENT.
    33:56
    AND ALSO IT’S A WAY OF LIFE TO LIVE WITH ALL THE CHANGES IN THE
    34:00
    ENVIRONMENT.
    34:02
    AND YOU KNOW, IN ARCTIC, YOU HAVE A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE
    34:05
    CLIMATE.
    34:13
    TREES ARE GROWING IN THE TUNDRA.
    34:16
    IT’S BAD BECAUSE TREES, THEY KILL LICHEN.
    34:23
    THE REINDEER DON’T LIKE IT.
    34:25
    AND OF COURSE, IT ALSO COVER MORE SNOW WHEN IT IS WIND.
    34:31
    SO THE SNOW WILL BE VERY HARD.
    34:41
    >> [ SPEAKING NATIVE LANGUAGE ] >> YEAH, YEAH.
    34:50
    I ASKED UVLLA HENRICH ABOUT CLIMATE — HOW HE FEEL THAT THIS
    34:54
    HAS BEEN, AND HE FEEL IT’S A BIG CHANGE ON HIS, BECAUSE, EARLIER,
    35:00
    IT WAS VERY COMMON, WITH LONG PERIODS, ALREADY IN DECEMBER,
    35:06
    JANUARY, FEBRUARY, WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 35-BELOW,
    35:12
    40-BELOW CELSIUS.
    35:14
    AND IT’S VERY COMMON IT WOULD RAIN IN DECEMBER.
    35:17
    IN THE LAST 10 YEARS, THEY HAVE REALLY NOTICED CHANGING, YEAH.
    35:26
    >> BY NOW, I FELT I’D SEEN A LOT OF EVIDENCE THAT THE EARTH IS
    35:30
    ACTUALLY WARMING AND THAT RISING LEVELS OF CARBON DIOXIDE ARE
    35:34
    PART OF THE EXPLANATION, IF NOT THE WHOLE THING.
    35:38
    BUT EVERYTHING I’D LEARNT SO FAR WAS ABOUT THE PAST.
    35:41
    WHAT ABOUT THE FUTURE?
    35:44
    I KNEW SCIENTISTS WERE MAKING PREDICTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL
    35:47
    TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THIS CENTURY AND BEYOND.
    35:51
    COULD THEY REALLY BE SO CONFIDENT?
    36:04
    2/3 OF THE EARTH IS COVERED BY WATER.
    36:09
    SO IT’S WHAT HAPPENS TO THE OCEANS THAT WILL DETERMINE THE
    36:13
    FUTURE OF THE WORLD’S CLIMATE.
    36:15
    >> THE OCEAN STORES AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF HEAT.
    36:20
    IN ORDER TO WARM THE PLANET, WE ULTIMATELY HAVE TO WARM THE
    36:24
    WHOLE OCEAN.
    36:25
    AND TO WARM THE WHOLE OCEAN IS AN ENORMOUS THING.
    36:38
    >> SO, WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE WORLD’S OCEANS?
    36:41
    WITH A SLIGHTLY SINKING STOMACH, I ACCEPTED AN INVITATION TO JOIN
    36:46
    THE RV TANGAROA — NEW ZEALAND’S DEEP-WATER RESEARCH VESSEL — ON
    36:51
    A CRUISE TO THE SOUTHERN OCEAN.
    36:57
    >> I’M SURE I’M PREACHING TO THE CHOIR HERE.
    36:59
    ANYBODY WHO’S SAILED TO THE SOUTHERN OCEAN HAS FELT ITS
    37:02
    TURBULENCE.
    37:03
    IF WE LOOK AT ANY YACHTSMEN THAT HAVE SAILED AROUND-THE-WORLD
    37:06
    YACHT RACES, THE BIG BOGEY IN THE RACE IS ALWAYS
    37:09
    THE SOUTHERN OCEAN.
    37:13
    OCEANOGRAPHY COVERS A WHOLE RANGE OF DISCIPLINES, SO YOU
    37:17
    HAVE TO HAVE SOME KNOWLEDGE OF CHEMISTRY.
    37:19
    YOU HAVE TO HAVE SOME KNOWLEDGE OF THE CLIMATE, OF THE GEOLOGY,
    37:23
    OF THE BIOLOGY.
    37:24
    SO THERE’S A WHOLE RANGE OF THINGS — WHEN YOU GO TO SEA,
    37:27
    YOU HAVE THESE IN THE BACK OF YOUR MIND.
    37:30
    BUT I DO GET SEASICK, AND THAT’S THE FACT OF LIFE.
    37:36
    BUT AS SOON AS THAT SHIP LEAVES PORT, WE’RE IN BUSINESS.
    37:44
    BECAUSE WE’RE RUNNING 24 HOURS A DAY, WE HAVE ONE TEAM DOING 12
    37:48
    HOURS, THE OTHER TEAM DOING THE SECOND 12 HOURS.
    37:53
    WHEN WE REACH THE FIRST OF OUR SCHEDULED SURVEY POINTS, THEN,
    37:57
    WELL, I LIKE TO SAY, “ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE.”
    38:10
    WE TAKE LOTS OF WATER SAMPLES, AND SO WE’RE CONSTANTLY
    38:14
    RECORDING THE DEPTH OF THE OCEAN.
    38:16
    WE’RE CONSTANTLY RECORDING THE TEMPERATURE OF THE OCEAN’S
    38:20
    SURFACE WATER.
    38:22
    >> TEMPERATURE IS FAIRLY CONSTANT DOWN TO BE 30, 40
    38:25
    METERS.
    38:25
    THEN IT SLOWLY STARTS DROPPING OFF.
    38:28
    AND THE DEEPER WE GET, THE LOWER THE TEMPERATURE.
    38:36
    >> WE HAVE A RANGE OF INSTRUMENTS — CURRENT METERS,
    38:40
    TEMPERATURE LOGGERS, SEDIMENT TRAPS, INSTRUMENTS FOR MEASURING
    38:44
    CARBON DIOXIDE IN THE WATER.
    38:46
    THIS IS THE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THE 20th TIME WE’VE VISITED THIS
    38:50
    SITE.
    38:53
    >> THERE’S REALLY NO OTHER WAY TO GET A TIME SERIES OF
    38:57
    MEASUREMENTS FROM THE DEPTHS OF THE OCEAN.
    39:01
    SO WE’RE JUST TURNING IT AROUND, REPLACING THE INSTRUMENTS, AND
    39:04
    WE’LL BE LEAVING IT AGAIN NOW FOR ABOUT ANOTHER EIGHT MONTHS.
    39:10
    >> I LOVE MY WORK.
    39:11
    I SUPPOSE I SHOULDN’T SAY, BUT I’VE BEEN DOING THIS FOR ALMOST
    39:15
    20 YEARS, AND I REALLY ENJOY COMING OUT TO SEA.
    39:18
    IT’S WHAT MAKES BEING AN ACADEMIC FUN.
    39:25
    YOU CANNOT DO THE SCIENCE WITHOUT KNOWING WHERE YOUR
    39:27
    SAMPLES COME FROM.
    39:28
    YOU CAN ASK PEOPLE TO BRING YOU HOME SAMPLES, BUT IF YOU DON’T
    39:31
    ACTUALLY SEE WHERE THINGS ARE COMING FROM, IT’S EASY TO MISS
    39:35
    THE SUBTLETIES IN WHAT YOU’RE LOOKING AT.
    39:47
    >> THE WARMING, WHICH INITIALLY AFFECTS THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE
    39:51
    NEAR-SURFACE OCEAN, IS SLOWLY PENETRATING DOWN INTO THE OCEAN
    39:54
    DEPTHS.
    39:55
    THE OCEAN IS ACTING AS A BREAK ON THE SURFACE WARMING.
    39:59
    IT’S HOLDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN.
    40:01
    >> THE PLANET HASN’T CAUGHT UP WITH WHAT WE’VE ALREADY DONE.
    40:04
    SO EMISSIONS IN THE PAST MEAN THAT WE’RE GOING TO SEE FURTHER
    40:09
    WARMING THROUGH THIS CENTURY ANYWAY.
    40:11
    >> SO, WE SHOULDN’T EXPECT THE CLIMATE CHANGE WHICH WE’VE SEEN
    40:16
    SO FAR TO BE ALL WE’RE COMMITTED TO AS A RESULT OF THE
    40:19
    GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS WE’VE MADE SO FAR.
    40:21
    IN FACT, IT’S PROBABLY, YOU KNOW,
    40:23
    MAYBE OVER HALF, BUT PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 2/3 OF WHAT WE’RE
    40:26
    COMMITTED TO.
    40:38
    >> MY TIME AT SEA MADE IT CLEAR THAT PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF
    40:42
    THE CLIMATE WAS NOT JUST A MATTER OF UNDERSTANDING THE
    40:46
    ATMOSPHERE.
    40:48
    SOMEHOW, WE NEEDED TO INCORPORATE WHAT HAPPENS IN
    40:51
    OTHER PARTS OF OUR WORLD, PARTICULARLY THE OCEANS.
    40:57
    SO I ARRANGED TO MEET SOME SCIENTISTS WHO WERE TRYING TO DO
    41:00
    JUST THAT, USING COMPUTERS.
    41:25
    >> WE CAN DO THE EXPERIMENT WITH THE EARTH ONLY ONCE, BUT IN A
    41:28
    COMPUTER, YOU CAN SIMULATE THE EARTH THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF
    41:31
    TIMES.
    41:36
    >> WE WANT TO SIMULATE THE OCEANS, THE ATMOSPHERE, THE
    41:39
    BIOSPHERE, AND ALL THE INTERCONNECTIONS IN BETWEEN, AND
    41:42
    THAT’S WHY IT TAKES SO LONG — EVEN ON THESE POWERFUL
    41:45
    COMPUTERS — WEEKS AND MONTHS TO PROJECT THE CLIMATE FOR A COUPLE
    41:49
    OF HUNDRED YEARS.
    41:53
    >> BACK WHEN THIS SCIENCE WAS RELATIVELY YOUNG, IN THE 1980s,
    41:56
    THEY PREDICTED THE KIND OF WARMING WE SHOULD EXPECT TO BE
    42:00
    ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATE OF INCREASE FROM GREENHOUSE GASES
    42:03
    THAT WE’VE OBSERVED.
    42:04
    AND THEY PREDICTED IT’D BE BETWEEN 1/10 AND 2/10 OF A
    42:07
    DEGREE PER DECADE.
    42:09
    AND THAT’S EXACTLY WHAT WE’VE SEEN SINCE THAT TIME, SO, YOU
    42:13
    KNOW, THIS WAS, IF YOU LIKE, A 20-YEAR WEATHER FORECAST, WHICH
    42:17
    APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY SUCCESSFUL.
    42:23
    >> THE BIG QUESTION THE MODELS ARE DESIGNED TO ANSWER IS, HOW
    42:27
    SENSITIVE IS THE CLIMATE TO THE WARMING EFFECT, THE SO-CALLED
    42:31
    FORCING OF INCREASED CO2?
    42:35
    THE ANSWER THE MODEL SUGGESTS IS THAT IF WE DOUBLE THE LEVEL OF
    42:39
    CARBON DIOXIDE, THE WORLD WILL WARM BY 3 DEGREES CELSIUS OR
    42:44
    THEREABOUTS.
    42:46
    BUT IF WE CONTINUE AS WE ARE DOING, BY THE END OF THE
    42:49
    CENTURY, CARBON DIOXIDE MAY WELL BE FOUR TIMES HIGHER THAN
    42:53
    PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS, IMPLYING A WORLD 6 CELSIUS.
    42:58
    THAT’S 11 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER.
    43:04
    BUT CAN THE MODELS BE TRUSTED SO FAR FROM EXPERIENCE?
    43:08
    HAVE THEY REALLY GOT THE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY RIGHT?
    43:13
    THIS IS MATT HUBER, A PALEOCLIMATOLOGIST FROM
    43:17
    PURDUE UNIVERSITY, INDIANA.
    43:19
    >> A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SKEPTICAL OF CLIMATE MODELS, AND IT’S VERY
    43:23
    GOOD TO BE SKEPTICAL OF THEM.
    43:25
    THERE’S ALWAYS A QUESTION, WELL, IF YOU KICK THE MODEL, IF
    43:28
    YOU PUSH IT TOWARDS OF WARMER WORLD, IS THE MODEL TENDING TO
    43:32
    BE OVERLY SENSITIVE TO THAT PUSH?
    43:35
    YOU PUSH IT A LITTLE BIT AND THE MODEL GOES CRAZY AND IT GETS WAY
    43:38
    TOO WARM.
    43:39
    OR IS IT POSSIBLE THAT IF YOU PUSH THE MODEL, DOES IT BUDGE
    43:42
    NEARLY AS MUCH AS IT SHOULD?
    43:44
    IT JUST MOVES A LITTLE BIT.
    43:50
    YOU CAN LOOK OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS AND TRY AND INFER WHAT THE
    43:54
    TRUE VALUE OF CLIMATE SENSITIVITY SHOULD BE.
    43:57
    AND RIGHT NOW, WE DON’T KNOW WHETHER THAT VALUE IS 1 DEGREE
    44:01
    OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PER DOUBLING OF CARBON-DIOXIDE
    44:05
    CONCENTRATIONS OR 5 DEGREES OF WARMING PER DOUBLING CO2.
    44:11
    AND THE PALEOCLIMATE RECORD IS PROVIDING A LOT OF REALLY USEFUL
    44:15
    INSIGHTS INTO WHICH OF THOSE NUMBERS IS CLOSER TO THE TRUTH.
    44:18
    IS IT 1 OR IS IT 5?
    44:21
    SO, WHAT I’VE DONE IN MY RESEARCH AND WHAT OTHER PEOPLE
    44:24
    HAVE DONE IN MY FIELD OF RESEARCH IS LOOK AT PAST PERIODS
    44:28
    OF GLOBAL WARMING AS A WAY OF UNDERSTANDING THE WAYS IN WHICH
    44:32
    MODELS PRODUCE WARMER CLIMATES AND ALSO THE DEGREE TO WHICH
    44:36
    THEY REPRODUCE THE MAGNITUDE AND PATTERN OF WARMING CORRECTLY,
    44:39
    BASED ON COMPARISON WITH PALEOCLIMATE DATA.
    44:43
    SO, HERE’S THE AMAZING THING.
    44:44
    THIS IS THE WORLD AS IT WAS IN THE EOCENE 50 MILLION YEARS AGO.
    44:48
    THERE WERE CROCODILES NEAR THE NORTH POLE.
    44:51
    AND THERE’S ALSO FOSSILS OF TORTOISES AND A WHOLE VARIETY OF
    44:55
    SUBTROPICAL PLANTS.
    44:56
    THIS WAS CLEARLY A SUBTROPICAL SWAMP ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
    44:59
    WARMEST PERIODS IN THE EOCENE, MORE LIKE THE COAST OF FLORIDA
    45:02
    THAN THE NORTH POLE IS TODAY.
    45:07
    >> THE FACT THAT THE CLIMATES HAVE CHANGED SO DRAMATICALLY IN
    45:10
    THE PAST IS THE STRONGEST EVIDENCE FOR THE REALITY, THE
    45:13
    CORRECTNESS OF OUR UNDERSTANDING OF CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, IN TERMS
    45:17
    OF PRINCIPLES OF ENERGY BALANCE.
    45:19
    IF YOU HAD A SITUATION WHERE THE CLIMATE JUST REMAINED ROCK-SOLID
    45:23
    FOR THE PAST BILLION YEARS, THEN YOU HAVE A PRETTY STRONG
    45:27
    ARGUMENT THAT THERE WAS SOME STABILIZING FEEDBACK THAT JUST
    45:30
    KEPT THE CLIMATE FROM CHANGING VERY MUCH.
    45:32
    WHEREAS WE DO KNOW THAT, IF YOU GO TO 55 MILLION YEARS AGO, THE
    45:38
    CLIMATE WAS SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN IT IS TODAY.
    45:41
    THERE WAS NO ICE, ESSENTIALLY, ANYWHERE ON THE PLANET — NO
    45:45
    PERMANENT ICE — AND WE KNOW THAT THE ONLY THING, THE ONLY
    45:48
    LEVER YOU HAVE OVER CLIMATE THAT CAN CAUSE THAT KIND OF CHANGE IS
    45:53
    A CHANGE IN THE GREENHOUSE-GAS COMPOSITION, A CHANGE IN THE
    45:56
    CARBON DIOXIDE.
    45:57
    WE EVEN KNOW, TO SOME EXTENT, WHAT THE GREENHOUSE-GAS
    45:59
    CONCENTRATIONS WERE.
    46:03
    >> SO, THERE’S A VARIETY OF TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING THE
    46:06
    PAST ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS.
    46:09
    THE ONE THAT I FIND THE MOST CONVINCING IS ACTUALLY THIS
    46:12
    CERTAIN KIND OF MINERAL THAT ONLY FORMS UNDER HIGH CO2
    46:17
    CONDITIONS, AND THAT MINERAL NAHCOLITE IS ACTUALLY KNOWN TO
    46:22
    HAVE BEEN FORMING 50 MILLION YEARS AGO AND NOT, SUBSEQUENTLY,
    46:26
    AFTER THAT.
    46:30
    IF YOU SET THE MODELS UP WITH THE CONDITIONS APPROPRIATE FOR
    46:35
    50 MILLION YEARS AGO, INCLUDING HIGHER GREENHOUSE-GAS
    46:38
    CONCENTRATIONS, THE MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE
    46:42
    CLIMATES PRODUCED BY THE MODELS ARE TODAY.
    46:45
    BUT THEY’RE NOT WARM ENOUGH.
    46:48
    AND THAT INDICATES THAT THE MODELS TEND TO BE NOT SENSITIVE
    46:52
    ENOUGH TO FORCING DUE TO CO2.
    46:59
    THAT’S WHAT THE PALEOCLIMATE RECORD INDICATES, IS THAT
    47:02
    SENSITIVITY IS MORE TOWARDS THE HIGH END — 4 OR 5 DEGREES OF
    47:07
    WARMING PER DOUBLING OF CO2, AS OPPOSED TO 1 OR 2 DEGREES.
    47:14
    >> SO, IF ANYTHING, THE CLIMATE MODELS MAY UNDERESTIMATE THE
    47:17
    FUTURE PACE OF GLOBAL WARMING.
    47:18
    IT SEEMS LIKELY, THAT OVER THE NEXT DECADE OR TWO, CLIMATE
    47:23
    CHANGE WILL BEING TO ACCELERATE.
    47:26
    TO FIND OUT WHAT THAT MEAN FOR THE PLANET, I TOOK ONE LAST
    47:30
    TRIP — BACK IN TIME.
    47:38
    I FOUND THE TIME MACHINE I NEEDED SITTING ON THE SEA ICE IN
    47:42
    THE MIDDLE OF McMURDO SOUND IN ANTARCTICA — ANDRILL.
    48:03
    >> WE MADE A HOLE 85 METERS DEEP, THEN WE LOWERED OUR PIPE
    48:06
    THROUGH THE ICE SHELF, AND A FURTHER 850 METERS DOWN TO THE
    48:11
    SEA FLOOR.
    48:18
    AND FROM THERE, WE DRILLED BACK IN TIME 14 MILLION YEARS THROUGH
    48:23
    SEDIMENTARY LAYERS OF ROCK.
    48:25
    WE GOT TO THE BOTTOM OF THE HOLE.
    48:27
    WE HAD DRILLED 1,284 METERS OF CORE.
    48:37
    WE BRING UP THESE LAYERS BY CORE BARREL BY CORE BARREL.
    48:40
    VERY LABORIOUS.
    48:42
    ALL THIS INFORMATION IS ABSOLUTELY VITAL TO
    48:46
    RECONSTRUCTING A PICTURE OF WHAT OUR PLANET LOOKED LIKE AT A
    48:50
    TIME, WHICH IS PROBABLY A VERY GOOD EXAMPLE OF WHERE WE’RE
    48:54
    HEADING TO.
    48:55
    [ MACHINERY WHIRRING ] >> THE ROCK CORES ARE A TREASURE
    49:00
    TROVE OF INFORMATION ABOUT PAST CONDITIONS IN THE ROSS SEA.
    49:04
    >> WHAT ACTUALLY CAME OUT OF THAT HOLE HAD OUR EYES OUT ON
    49:07
    ORGAN STOPS.
    49:08
    WE WERE JUST STARING AT THIS CORE AND SEEING THESE DRAMATIC
    49:12
    CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENT FROM FULL-ON GLACIAL CONDITIONS AND
    49:16
    THEN JUST OVER HALF A METER OF CORE — WHAM — YOU’RE INTO
    49:20
    GREEN ALGAL BLOOMS.
    49:23
    AND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF MANY OF THESE BLOOMS INDICATE
    49:26
    TEMPERATURES WERE 2 TO 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE
    49:28
    TODAY.
    49:30
    AND WE’RE STARTING TO BUILD A PICTURE OF A VERY DIFFERENT
    49:34
    ROSS SEA, ANTARCTICA, WEST ANTARCTICA, DURING SOME OF
    49:39
    THESE WARM PERIODS IN THE PAST.
    49:49
    IT’S QUITE A CAUTIONARY TALE, IF YOU LIKE, TO BE ABLE TO LOOK
    49:54
    BACK AND REALIZE THAT, ONLY UNDER MARGINALLY HIGHER VALUES
    49:58
    OF CO2, THESE ELEMENTS ARE INCREDIBLY SENSITIVE.
    50:02
    THE WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET IS A VERY SENSITIVE FEATURE.
    50:07
    YOU DON’T HAVE TO DO A LOT TO DESTABILIZE IT, AND WE ARE DOING
    50:11
    A LOT RIGHT NOW.
    50:12
    WE JUST HAVEN’T SEEN THE CONSEQUENCE.
    50:18
    IF THE TEMPERATURES OF THE OCEAN INCREASE BY UP TO 5 DEGREES,
    50:24
    THE WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET WILL COLLAPSE.
    50:26
    IT WILL DISAPPEAR, AND SEA LEVEL WILL BE AT LEAST 5 METERS
    50:29
    HIGHER.
    50:30
    AND I GUESS WE’D HAVE TO ASSUME GREENLAND WOULD BE GONE, AS
    50:33
    WELL.
    50:34
    SO 10 METERS HIGHER.
    50:37
    >> OVER THE NEXT 100 YEARS, WE ARE GOING TO BE PUSHING CO2 UP
    50:41
    TO LEVELS LAST SEEN SOMETHING LIKE 45 OR 50 MILLION YEARS AGO
    50:47
    WHEN THERE WAS NO ICE AT EITHER POLE AND CROCODILES WERE
    50:50
    SWIMMING OFF THE COAST OF GREENLAND.
    50:56
    >> WHERE WE’RE HEADING INTO THE FUTURE, WE HAVE AN IDEA WHERE
    50:59
    THAT MAY GO BY LOOKING BACK AT THE PAST.
    51:01
    IF YOU LOOKED ACROSS HERE 5 MILLION YEARS AGO, YOU’D SEE NO
    51:05
    ICE IN THE SEA.
    51:06
    YOU’D SEE NOT SO MUCH ICE ON THE HILLS.
    51:08
    YOU MIGHT SEE GREEN OVER THERE.
    51:11
    GOING BACK 15 MILLION YEARS AGO, YOU’D SEE A WHOLE DIFFERENT
    51:14
    BIOTA DOWN HERE.
    51:15
    YOU’D PROBABLY SEE PORPOISE AND DOLPHIN SWIMMING OUT THERE,
    51:18
    RATHER THAN KILLER WHALES.
    51:23
    >> IT SEEMS WE’RE ON COURSE TO TAKE OUR PLANET BACK MILLIONS OF
    51:27
    YEARS.
    51:30
    IT’S UNLIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE NATURAL WORLD WE KNOW WILL
    51:35
    SURVIVE THE TRANSITION.
    51:39
    WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO HUMAN SOCIETY IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY.
    51:44
    [ PENGUIN SQUAWKS ] >> I LOOK AT MY KIDS AND I LOOK
    51:47
    AT THE WAY PEOPLE BEHAVE AND BY AND LARGE, PEOPLE ARE PRETTY
    51:51
    ADAPTABLE AND PRETTY RESILIENT.
    51:53
    AND SO I DON’T WORRY THAT WE ARE GOING TO ALL GET KILLED BY THIS
    51:57
    THING.
    51:58
    I DO WORRY THAT OUR CHILDREN ARE NOT GOING TO THANK US FOR
    52:03
    GIVING THEM THE HEADACHE WE’RE GOING TO GIVE THEM IF WE CARRY
    52:07
    ON, ON THE PATHS WE’RE FOLLOWING, BECAUSE IF WE DON’T
    52:11
    GET OUT OF THIS, THEY WILL HAVE TO.
    52:14
    AND EVERY DECADE WE POSTPONE DOING ANYTHING ABOUT GLOBAL
    52:20
    WARMING IS ANOTHER 100 BILLION TONS OR SO OF CARBON INTO THE
    52:27
    ATMOSPHERE, AND WE’RE THAT MUCH CLOSER TO THE SORT OF CLIMATE
    52:31
    WHERE WE REALLY CAN’T PREDICT WHERE THE WARMING WILL STOP.
    52:44
    >> IF SENSITIVITY TO CARBON-DIOXIDE VARIATIONS IS
    52:48
    SOMETHING LIKE 4 OR 5 DEGREES PER DOUBLING, THEN THAT MEANS WE
    52:53
    ACTUALLY NEED TO REDUCE HUMAN EMISSIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE TO
    52:58
    ZERO IN THE NEXT 50 YEARS, WHICH IS A FAR MORE RADICAL KIND OF
    53:05
    POLICY THAN WHAT MOST PEOPLE, MOST POLITICIANS, AND MOST
    53:08
    GOVERNMENTS ARE TALKING ABOUT CURRENTLY.
    53:10
    >> THAT’S QUITE IMPORTANT TO REALIZE, THAT IF WE WANT TO
    53:14
    STABILIZE THE CLIMATE, THERE’S NO WAY AROUND IT THAN TO AIM FOR
    53:19
    ZERO CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE LONG TERM.
    53:23
    >> TODAY, THE MAIN EFFORT TO MANAGE CO2 EMISSIONS IS
    53:28
    THE U.N. CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE.
    53:31
    >> I HEREBY DECLARE OPEN THE THIRD MEETING OF THE AD HOC
    53:35
    WORKING GROUP ON LONG-TERM COOPERATIVE ACTION UNDER THE
    53:39
    CONVENTION.
    53:40
    >> THANK YOU, CHAIR.
    53:41
    DISTINGUISHED DELEGATES, THE OBJECTIVE OF THE CONVENTION
    53:45
    REQUIRES KEEPING GLOBAL WARMING AS FAR AS POSSIBLE BELOW
    53:49
    2 DEGREES.
    53:51
    >> IT WAS OBVIOUS TO ME THAT GETTING THE WHOLE WORLD TO AGREE
    53:55
    ON CO2 EMISSIONS IS PROVING DEPRESSINGLY DIFFICULT.
    54:00
    BUT WHAT FINALLY CHEERED ME UP WAS THE EXPERIENCE I’D HAD WITH
    54:04
    CLIMATE SCIENTISTS, LEARNING ABOUT THEIR SCIENCE.
    54:10
    OVER THREE YEARS, I’D MET DOZENS AND DOZENS OF SCIENTISTS.
    54:15
    I WAS CONVINCED THAT THEY HAD NOT BEEN LYING.
    54:18
    THERE IS NO HOAX.
    54:21
    IN FACT, I WAS IMPRESSED BY THE BREADTH OF THE SUBJECT, HOW
    54:25
    CAREFULLY THE SCIENTISTS WENT ABOUT COLLECTING THEIR DATA,
    54:29
    SCRUTINIZING ALL POSSIBLE SOURCES OF ERROR, AND HOW
    54:33
    OPEN-MINDED THEY WERE ABOUT THEIR CONCLUSIONS.
    54:38
    THIS WAS SCIENCE AT ITS BEST.
    54:41
    AND IT HAS GIVEN US A GREAT GIFT — THE ABILITY TO LOOK INTO
    54:46
    OUR FUTURE AND SHAPE IT.
    54:50
    >> THE SOONER THAT WE BEGIN TO REDUCE OUR IMPACT ON THE CLIMATE
    54:53
    SYSTEM, THE BETTER OFF WE ARE.
    54:56
    THAT SAID, I THINK WE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A VERY, VERY
    54:59
    EXCITING FUTURE.
    55:00
    WE UNDERSTAND THERE’S A PROBLEM, WE UNDERSTAND THE DIRECTION THAT
    55:03
    WE’RE GOING, AND WE NEED FIXES THAT ARE GOING TO BE VALUABLE.
    55:09
    >> OFTEN WHEN I GO AND TALK TO SCHOOL GROUPS, I COME AWAY
    55:13
    WONDERING WHETHER I’VE JUST SCARED THEM.
    55:16
    AND I THINK IT’S IMPORTANT TO TELL THEM, “NO, DON’T BE AFRAID.
    55:19
    HERE’S SOMETHING THAT WE’RE GOING TO GET THROUGH, BUT FOR
    55:23
    YOU KIDS, TAKE IT SERIOUSLY.
    55:26
    DON’T BE ALARMED OR AFRAID, BUT JOIN IN THIS EFFORT.
    55:29
    BECOME THE BEST SCIENTISTS OR ENGINEERS YOU CAN, AND LET’S
    55:35
    SOLVE THIS PROBLEM.”

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